How is block probability calculated?

MiningOdds uses a Poisson model. Lambda equals (your hashrate / network hashrate) x (time window / block time), and the probability of finding at least one block is 1 - e^(-lambda).

What does expected time mean?

Expected time is a statistical average, not a promise. When elapsed time equals expected time, probability is only about 63.2%, not 100%.

Which coins are supported?

The calculator supports Bitcoin, Monero, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and Dogecoin.

Mining Calculator

Enter hashrate and choose a coin to calculate block probability, expected time, network share, and block reward value.

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Select a coin

Your hashrate

Algorithm SHA-256

Block time 10 min

Block reward 3.125 BTC

Network hashrate 841.86 EH/s

Price $63,758

Solo mining is binary: full block reward or nothing.

Results

Format:

Enter hashrate to calculate block probability

Estimates only. Network hashrate and prices change continuously.

Disclaimer: No representation or warranty of any kind, express or implied, is made regarding the accuracy, adequacy, validity, reliability, availability, or completeness of any information presented. All figures are estimates based on live network data and should not be relied upon for financial decisions.

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How it works

MiningOdds calculates your share of network hashrate, then applies the Poisson model: P(≥1) = 1 − e^−λ, where λ = (your hashrate ÷ network hashrate) × (time window ÷ block time).

Expected time is an average, not a schedule. When elapsed time equals expected time, probability is still only about 63.2%.

This page uses the same model as the required hashrate calculator, hashrate rental calculator, and the five coin-specific pages for Bitcoin, Monero, Litecoin, Dogecoin, and Bitcoin Cash.

Worked example (illustrative figures, not live data): at 1 PH/s against a 600 EH/s Bitcoin network, your share is 1 PH/s ÷ 600,000 PH/s ≈ 0.00017%. Over a 24-hour window (≈144 expected blocks at 10 minutes each), λ ≈ 0.00017% × 144 ≈ 0.00024. Applying P(≥1) = 1 − e^−λ gives roughly 0.024%, or about 1 in 4,200. The same steps run automatically above using the live hashrate you enter.